Carpe Jugulum: Essay: The Arctic, The Final Frontier

This week marked the silent passing of a momentous milestone in the field of exploration. Two Russian mini-submarines have reached the seabed below the North Pole on a mission aimed at boosting Moscow's claims to the Arctic, reports say.

The west largely ignored it, whilst the Russians lauded it as an event equal to putting a man on the moon. Same event, different reactions, I wonder why that is!

The missions are more about securing natural resources, than the more traditional lofty goals of climbing Mt Everest simply because it's there, or overcoming the embarrassment of not being the first to send a man into space. Every ten or so years, we hear dire predictions about "Peak Oil" and how our reliance on fossil fuels is ultimately unsustainable. Peak oil refers to modelling and prediction of when the peak of the world's petroleum production rate will be reached, meaning that the end is in sight for fossil fuels. The models have traditionally had limited accuracy as they have not been able to accurately predict the discovery of new oil fields or efficiency gains in the extraction, processing and use of petroleum. Accuracy of modelling/predicting aside we have to acknowledge that at some point in the future we will run out of fossil fuels.

Well the Russians have taken the first step to ensuring that at least in their case, that date is as far into the future as possible. The Arctic, together with the Antarctic is believed to hold vast reserves of fossil fuels, the control of which will grant the owner much power, influence and wealth. If we ever have to live through "Peak Oil's" dire predictions, without viable alternate sources of power, the Polar zones will be a major feather in our caps. Make no mistake, if economies start to fail due to scarcity of petroleum, if the west is forced to reduce it's standard of living to a level not seen for generations, or the Russians and Chinese (who only now are beginning to enjoy the prosperity the west has known for decades) are forced to halt their economic advances, "the shit will hit the fan." If we fail to achieve a sustainable way to maintain our standard of living, or improve the lot of ountries in need, all of our eyes will turn to the north and south.

Melting polar ice in the Arctic has led to competing claims over who owns vast areas of the Arctic. Ownership, and thus control of this region is set to become an important issue, more important than in the past where everyone could afford to regard the polar ice caps as wilderness areas best left alone. Consulting a map of the region, bbc.net has one here and another here, reveals how complex the issue is. Not gonna bore you with any more of my rambling ruminations, but I will say this the world is about to become a much more interesting place, because unlike conquering space which has no real economic benefits in the near future, the Polar zones promise tangible benefits that the bean counters have already counted. This is an issue countries will not only beat their chests and rattle their sabres over, alliances will be borne and broken, carrier groups will maneuver and if the wrong answer is returned diplomacy will fail and cruise missiles will be fired. After all when it comes down to it, in today's world almost nothing is more important than defending the right of each countries citizens to continue to lead, or aspire to lead comfortable yet unsustainable lives. The world might only have one true superpower, but there are at least half a dozen emerging powers who with a little imagination could make our lives much more interesting if their interests were threatened.

Predictions:

The event will get about ten seconds air play in the west and will continue to be lauded as a major achievement in the east.
Whatever inches it receives in western print media will discuss it as a waste or time, an irrational, unconscionable and avaricious desire to control one of the world's last true wildernesses. If the Russians find evidence that their continental shelf extends under the Arctic, thus increasing their claim for a greater area, this too will be ignored.
The politicians and green groups will castigate the Russians, whilst slowly and surely all interested countries will draw their plans for the area.
Quietly, the diplomats of all interested parties will meet and work furiously to reach a negotiated settlement, because where it was once okay to view the polar areas as a resource to be saved for the future, once the first move has been made to formalise control, the game must be joined by all players.
The rest of us won't even be aware of what's going on, or how important it is which i suppose is for the best.

Ignorance is Bliss.

Arctic Russia Peak Oilantarctic petroleum